Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Catching On

What is it about catchers starring in the National League Championship Series? Through four games, the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz leads the team in batting average (.500) and on-base percentage (.667), is tied for the lead in hits (5), runs (4), and walks (4), and is second to Ryan Howard in RBIs (4), slugging percentage (.900), and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) at 1.567.

If it weren't for Howard, Ruiz would be the runaway leader for NLCS MVP. That's not so uncommon among National League catchers.

In the past 10 years, three catchers have been named NLCS MVP--while none have ever won the award in the American League since its AL inception in 1980. The three were Ivan Rodriguez with Florida in 2003, Benito Santiago with San Francisco in 2002, and Atlanta's Eddie Perez in 1999.

Two other catchers have won the award since it began in the NL in 1977: Atlanta's Javy Lopez in 1996, and Darrell Porter of St. Louis in 1982.

Ruiz's numbers so far compare favorably with the best NLCS showings of recent years. Here's a comparison:

2009 Carlos Ruiz .500 BA, .667 OBP, 1.567 OPS, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI
2006 Yadier Molina .348 BA, .423 OBP, 1.075 OPS, 8 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI
2003 Ivan Rodriguez .321 BA, .424 OBP, 1.031 OPS, 9 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, MVP
2002 Benito Santiago .300 BA, .364 OBP, .964 OPS, 6 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, MVP
2000 Mike Piazza .412 BA, .545 OBP, 1.487 OPS, 7 H, 7 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
1999 Eddie Perez .500 BA, .524 OBP, 1.424 OPS, 10 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, MVP

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Perfect In The Clutch

Cole Hamels has history and experience on his side in Wednesday's NLCS game against the Dodgers. The Phillies, ahead 3 games to 1, will advance to the World Series with a win, and the team is historically perfect in such series-clinching situations.

The Phillies as a franchise are 6-0 in games in which they can possibly clinch the NLCS or World Series. Hamels is one of just four Phillies pitchers to start such a game. The others: Steve Carlton, Marty Bystrom, and Tommy Greene, with those last two names making for a great trivia question.

Bystrom was the first Phillies pitcher in team history to start a possible series-clincher, when he took the mound against Houston in Game 5 of the best-of-five 1980 NLCS. He pitched 5.1 innings, allowing 7 hits and 1 earned run. Dick Ruthven, a starter working in relief, got the win in the 10th inning.

Carlton twice won series clinchers, first taking Game 6 of the 1980 World Series against Kansas City, and then Game 4 of the best-of-five 1983 NLCS against the Dodgers. Greene won Game 6 of the 1993 NLCS by defeating the Braves with 7 innings of 5-hit ball.

Hamels, of course, started both deciding games for the Phillies in 2008, beating the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS. He got a no-decision against the Rays in rain-delayed Game 5 of the World Series, as J.C. Romero took the win.

In those six games, Greene is the only starter to allow more than 2 earned runs. Here's a list of all six.

1980 NLCS Bystrom 5.1 IP 7 H 1 ER no decision
1980 W.S. Carlton 7 IP 4 H 1 ER Win
1983 NLCS Carlton 6 IP 6 H 1 ER Win
1993 NLCS Greene 7 IP 5 H 3 ER Win
2008 NLCS Hamels 7 IP 5 H 1 ER Win
2008 W.S. Hamels 6 IP 5 H 2 ER no decision

Monday, October 19, 2009

One More For The Ages

In the first game of the Phillies' 2008 World Series Championship run, Cole Hamels pitched a gem against Milwaukee. He allowed just two hits--at the time the fewest allowed by a starter in team playoff history--threw 8 shutout innings and struck out 9. I called it one of the Phillies' best playoff pitching efforts ever, ranking it just below Steve Carlton's 1980 World Series Game 6 clincher, after reviewing every Phillies playoff game in team history.

Now, after Cliff Lee's brilliant Game 3 effort last night--plus Pedro Martinez's NLCS Game 2 and an additional Cole Hamels outing later in 2008--the list needs some updating. Seems the Phillies are in the Golden Age of playoff pitching, considering Hamels, Lee, and Martinez bumped off legends like Grover Cleveland Alexander and Curt Schilling (and Danny Jackson) from the list.

Here's an update to the Phillies' top 10 postseason pitching efforts, with World Series games in bold. All the others were either NLCS or NLDS games, and all were victories except for games by Martinez and Konstanty.

1980 Carlton: 7 IP 4 H 1 R 1 ER 3 BB 7 K 110 p (72 strikes)--won W.S.
2008 Hamels: 8 IP 2 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 9 K 101 p (67 strikes)
1993 Schilling: 9 IP 5 H 0 R 0 ER 3 BB 6 K 147 p (99 strikes)
2009 Lee: 8 IP 3 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 10 K 114 p (76 strikes)
2009 Martinez: 7 IP 2 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 3 K 87 p (57 strikes)
1983 Denny: 7.2 IP 5 H 1 R 1 ER 0 BB 5 K 109 p (73 strikes)
1950 Konstanty: 8 IP 4 H 1 R 1 ER 4 BB 0 K no pitch count
2008 Hamels: 7 IP 5 H 1 R 1 ER 3 BB 5 K 101 p (67 strikes)--won NLCS
1980 Carlton: 7 IP 7 H 1 R 1 ER 3 BB 3 K 105 p (66 strikes)
1983 Hudson: 9 IP 4 H 2 R 2 ER 2 BB 9 K 120 p (84 strikes)

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Winning In Spite Of Themselves

Chase Utley's second error in as many games underscored the playoff pressure players feel. Utley is now tied with Jimmy Rollins for the team lead in errors with three over the last two seasons.

But the Phillies haven't let their defensive lapses stop them. Amazingly, the Phillies are 10-2 in the last two postseasons in games in which they've made an error.

Just how unlikely is that? Well, through the first half of 2009, the Phillies had the exact same number of wins in games in which they made an error. They were 10-14 through the first 81 games. For the year, the Phillies were 29-25 when they made an error.

They had just 76 regular-season errors and a .987 fielding percentage; in the National League, only Pittsburgh had fewer errors (73) and a higher percentage (.988).

Friday, October 16, 2009

From MVP To Least Valuable?

Jimmy Rollins has a reputation as a star who shines brightest in the big games. It might be time for a makeover.

Rollins, a three-time All Star and the 2007 NL MVP, has been the least productive Phillies regular in the last four postseason series. Since the start of the 2008 NLCS, Rollins is hitting just .208, with a leadoff-hitter's nightmare .253 on-base percentage. He has just 1 home run and 1 RBI during the 15-game stretch.

He also leads the team in errors for the past two postseasons combined with three, which doesn't count his delayed toss to Chase Utley that threw off the play's timing in last night's game.

By comparison, Pedro Feliz, the next-worst productive regular, is hitting .229 over the last four postseason series, with 3 RBIs and a .312 OBP. He also has no errors the last two postseasons.

Rollins' inability to draw walks--amazingly, he has just 1 in the last 10 playoff games--is a major weakness for a leadoff hitter batting in front of 30-home-run sluggers like Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez. It's also why Rollins is able to claim a 5-game playoff hitting streak; since he never walks, he typically records 5 at-bats a game, as he has for 11 of the last 15 postseason games.

It's possible either hitting coach Milt Thompson or manager Charlie Manuel has encouraged Rollins to be more patient at the plate recently, since he has seen significantly more pitches over the last three playoff games. He has averaged 5.2 pitches per at-bat in the last three games, compared to 3.76 per at-bat in the 12 previous games dating to the 2008 NLCS.

If that doesn't work, might Manuel consider dropping Rollins in the lineup? Even if Manuel did nothing more than flip Rollins and Feliz, the team would see an improvement in the on-base percentage of its leadoff hitter.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

And Then There Was One

Things change fastball in baseball, as Brett Myers found out today. The Phillies' 2009 opening-day starter was not included on the team's NLCS roster.

His mid-season hip surgery, and a subsequent eye injury in August, kept Myers off the field for long stretches of the season. Still, Myers pitched in relief in eight games during September and October, as well as two-thirds of an inning in the NLDS against Colorado.

The absence of Myers, as well as Kyle Kendrick, from the 2009 NLCS roster means that only one Phillies pitcher remains active for the NLCS who was on the team's playoff roster just two years ago: Cole Hamels.

Besides Hamels, the other pitchers on the 2007 NLDS roster were: Myers, Kendrick, and Clay Condrey (all of whom weren't chosen), Jamie Moyer and J.C. Romero--both of whom are injured--and Antonio Alfonseca, Tom Gordon, Kyle Lohse, and Jose Mesa, none of whom are with the team.

Talk about a change-up.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Phillies' NLCS Best And Worst

It seems it wouldn't be a National League Championship Series for the Phillies if they didn't face the Dodgers. This will be the eighth NLCS for the franchise--and the fifth time the team has played Los Angeles.

The teams are split historically, with L.A. winning the first two league championship series (1977, '78) and the Phillies taking the NLCS in 1983 and 2008.

Including the club's three other NLCS appearances in 1976 (vs. Cincinnati), '80 (Houston), and '93 (Atlanta), here are the best and worst Phillies NLCS performances by position.

The best:
C: Bob Boone, 1977: .400 BA
1B: Pete Rose, 1980: .400 BA, .520 OBP
2B: Manny Trillo, 1980: .381 BA, .935 OPS, 4 RBI, NLCS MVP
SS: Larry Bowa, 1978: .333 BA
3B: Mike Schmidt, 1983: .467 BA, 1.329 OPS, 5 runs scored
LF: Gary Matthews, 1983: .429 BA, 1.571 OPS, 3 HR, 8 RBI, NLCS MVP
CF: Garry Maddox, 1980: .300 BA, 3 RBI
RF: Jay Johnstone, 1976: .778 BA, 1.911 OPS (7-for-9 in three-game series)
P: Steve Carlton, 1983: 2-0, 0.66 ERA, 13 K in 13.2 IP
P: Curt Schilling, 1993: 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 19 K in 16 IP, NLCS MVP
P: Cole Hamels, 2008: 2-0, 1.93 ERA, 13 K in 14 IP, NLCS MVP
P: Brad Lidge, 2008: 3 saves, 0.00 ERA, 6 K in 4.1 IP in 4 G
P: Mitch Williams, 1993: 2-0, 2 saves, 1.69 ERA, 5 K in 5.1 IP in 4 G
P: Ryan Madson, 2008: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 K in 5 IP in 4 G

The worst:
C: Bo Diaz, 1983: .154 BA, .231 SLG.
1B: Richie Hebner, 1978: .111 BA
2B: Joe Morgan, 1983: .067 BA, .176 OBP
SS: Jimmy Rollins, 2008: .143 BA, .217 OBP, 8 strikeouts
3B: Mike Schmidt, 1977: .063 BA, 1 RBI
LF: Pete Incaviglia, 1993: .167 BA, .167 OBP
CF: Garry Maddox, 1976: .231 BA
RF: Jim Eisenreich, 1993: .133 BA, .200 SLG
P: Jamie Moyer, 2008: 0-1, 40.50 ERA, 6 ER in 1.1 IP
P: Larry Christenson, 1978: 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 6 ER in 4.1 IP
P: Jim Lonborg, 1977: 0-1, 11.25 ERA, 5 ER in 4 IP
P: Ron Reed, 1980: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 4 ER in 2 IP in 3 G
P: Larry Andersen, 1993: 0-0, 15.43 ERA, 4 ER in 2.1 IP in 3 G
P: Tug McGraw, 1976: 0-0, 11.57 ERA, 3 ER in 2 IP in 2 G